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Metals start on yet another high note

06/04/06

The leading base metals put in a strong performance in overnight trading as Asia reacted to yesterday’s strength. Zinc has hit fresh highs at $2,820, nickel has already hit the $17,000 target and copper has extended gains to $5760. Lead is leading the dissenter’s, with prices breaching trend line support at 1160 and aluminium continues to struggle, but is just holding above 2,500. Fund buying seems to be the main driving force, although why aluminium is not reacting to this is a point that needs to be watched closely. But the combination of seasonal strong demand, concerns over copper supply, rising oil price and a weaker dollar, are fuelling bullish sentiment.

In fact fund buying seems to be pushing everything higher. In addition to base and precious metals, equities are also steaming higher with the S&P reaching levels not seen since 2001, so things are looking bullish. However, if equities are about to set off on a another up leg, then this may well lead to some rotation from those assets that have outperformed (the metals) to those that are building up steam to head higher.

For the moment the trend has to be your guideline in these metals, but to say some of the metals are overbought would be an understatement. Today’s economic data includes Monster employment index, BOE rate announcement, ECB announcement, US jobless claims ( expected 305,000 after last week’s 302,000) and chain store sales.

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