w: www.basemetals.com | e: info@basemetals.com | t: +44 (0) 1799 516956
Lead and zinc recover while the other metals consolidate

31/01/06

After the volatility of last Friday, the base metals had a day of consolidation, with copper edging lower while lead and zinc recouped some of their lost ground and aluminium remained on a strong footing just below recent highs. With China closed for the New Year one of the important exchanges will be closed which may give the markets the opportunity to consolidate. Interestingly enough the CFTC data from Comex continues to suggest that the CTA type funds are not that long in copper. The net long fund position increased only 490 contracts, with 33,342 lots long against 30,596 lots short, which suggests a fairly well balanced market.

Aluminium remained robust which given the acceleration in stocks is interesting. Stocks have now risen from below 500,000mt in November to 710,000mt and the rate of ascent seems to be accelerating again. With much of the stock increase turning up in Asia and thought to be attracted out of China by the high price, it would not be surprising to see Chinese export data pick-up again after falling in December. Concerns that Chinese aluminium exports would continue to fall have been one of the factors underpinning sentiment, so if exports have picked-up then that might start to weigh of aluminium prices. That said, while the funds are in the driving seat, the market seems to be making a good job of ignoring fundamental news.

In the bigger picture, US bonds continue to weaken and the dollar is in rebound mode, having climbed from lows at 87.83 on the dollar index last week to 89.50. A move above 89.70, which has been a strong resistance level for most of January, could see the dollar accelerate to the upside which in turn may dampen some of the enthusiasm for the metals.

Tuesday sees a host of economic data, with ICSC-UBS store sales, employment cost index (expected +0.9%), the Redbook, consumer confidence (expected 105 after December’s 103.60), NAPM business barometer (expected 59.5 after December’s 61.5) and then the all important FOMC announcement, which will be the last one under Alan Greenspan’s tenure.

- ends -

For further information please contact:

William Adams
Metals analyst, BaseMetals.com
press@basemetals.com
http://www.basemetals.com

BaseMetals.com
12 Rose and Crown Walk
Saffron Walden
Essex CB10 1JH
UK

T: +44 (0) 1799 516 956
F: +44 (0) 1799 516 941

 Live base metals price charts available at www.basemetals.com/freecharts/
BaseMetals.com Disclaimer and Privacy Policy

BaseMetals.com has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. However it is provided without warranty or claim of reliablity.

PLEASE READ THIS DOCUMENT CAREFULLY BEFORE ACCESSING OR USING THE SITE. BY ACCESSING OR USING THE SITE, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS SET FORTH BELOW. IF YOU DO NOT WISH TO BE BOUND BY THESE TERMS AND CONDITIONS, YOU MAY NOT ACCESS OR USE THE SITE. BASEMETALS.COM MAY MODIFY THIS AGREEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME, AND SUCH MODIFICATIONS SHALL BE EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY UPON POSTING OF THE MODIFIED AGREEMENT ON THE SITE. YOU AGREE TO REVIEW THE AGREEMENT PERIODICALLY TO BE AWARE OF SUCH MODIFICATIONS AND YOUR CONTINUED ACCESS OR USE OF THE SITE SHALL BE DEEMED YOUR CONCLUSIVE ACCEPTANCE OF THE MODIFIED AGREEMENT.

It is accepted by the site visitor on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. The information and data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.

YOU MAY NOT MODIFY, COPY, REPRODUCE, REPUBLISH, UPLOAD, POST, TRANSMIT, OR DISTRIBUTE, IN ANY MANNER, THE MATERIAL ON THE SITE, INCLUDING TEXT, GRAPHICS, CODE AND/OR SOFTWARE. You may print and download portions of material from the different areas of the Site solely for your own non-commercial use provided that you agree not to change or delete any copyright or proprietary notices from the materials. You agree to grant to BaseMetals.com a non-exclusive, royalty-free, worldwide, perpetual license, with the right to sub-license, to reproduce, distribute, transmit, create derivative works of, publicly display and publicly perform any materials and other information (including, without limitation, ideas contained therein for new or improved products and services) you submit to any public areas of the Site (such as bulletin boards, forums and newsgroups) or by e-mail to BaseMetals.com by all means and in any media now known or hereafter developed. You also grant to BaseMetals.com the right to use your name in connection with the submitted materials and other information as well as in connection with all advertising, marketing and promotional material related thereto. You agree that you shall have no recourse against BaseMetals.com for any alleged or actual infringement or misappropriation of any proprietary right in your communications to BaseMetals.com.

YOU ASSUME TOTAL RESPONSIBILITY AND RISK FOR YOUR USE OF THE SITE AND THE INTERNET. BASEMETALS.COM PROVIDES THE SITE AND RELATED INFORMATION "AS IS" AND DOES NOT MAKE ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, REPRESENTATIONS OR ENDORSEMENTS WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION WARRANTIES OF TITLE OR NONINFRINGEMENT, OR THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE) WITH REGARD TO THE SERVICE, ANY MERCHANDISE INFORMATION OR SERVICE PROVIDED THROUGH THE SERVICE OR ON THE INTERNET GENERALLY, AND BASEMETALS.COM SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY COST OR DAMAGE ARISING EITHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY FROM ANY SUCH TRANSACTION. IT IS SOLELY YOUR RESPONSIBILITY TO EVALUATE THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND USEFULNESS OF ALL OPINIONS, ADVICE, SERVICES, MERCHANDISE AND OTHER INFORMATION PROVIDED THROUGH THE SERVICE OR ON THE INTERNET GENERALLY. BASEMETALS.COM DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE SERVICE WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR ERROR-FREE OR THAT DEFECTS IN THE SERVICE WILL BE CORRECTED.

IN NO EVENT WILL BASEMETALS.COM BE LIABLE FOR (I) ANY INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR INDIRECT DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, DAMAGES FOR LOSS OF PROFITS, BUSINESS INTERRUPTION, LOSS OF PROGRAMS OR INFORMATION, AND THE LIKE) ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF OR INABILITY TO USE THE SERVICE, OR ANY INFORMATION, OR TRANSACTIONS PROVIDED ON THE SERVICE, OR DOWNLOADED FROM THE SERVICE, OR ANY DELAY OF SUCH INFORMATION OR SERVICE. EVEN IF BASEMETALS.COM OR ITS AUTHORIZED REPRESENTATIVES HAVE BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES, OR (II) ANY CLAIM ATTRIBUTABLE TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR OTHER INACCURACIES IN THE SERVICE AND/OR MATERIALS OR INFORMATION DOWNLOADED THROUGH THE SERVICE.

BaseMetals.com makes no representations whatsoever about any other web site which you may access through this one or which may link to this Site. When you access a non-BaseMetals.com Web site, please understand that it is independent from BaseMetals.com, and that BaseMetals.com has no control over the content on that Web site. In addition, a link to a BaseMetals.com Web site does not mean that BaseMetals.com endorses or accepts any responsibility for the content, or the use, of such Web site.

You agree to indemnify, defend and hold harmless BaseMetals.com, its officers, directors, employees, agents, licensors, suppliers and any third party information providers to the Service from and against all losses, expenses, damages and costs, including reasonable attorneys' fees, resulting from any violation of this Agreement (including negligent or wrongful conduct) by you or any other person accessing the Service.

contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of BaseMetals.com Limited. We wish to caution you that these statements are only predictions and that the actual events or results may differ materially.

This agreement shall be construed according according to the laws of the United Kingdom.

© 2005 BaseMetals.com

BaseMetals.com is a trading name of TheBullionDesk Limited